| HeraldNet - Snohomish County's online news source |
 FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2008 7:25 am |
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• A look at the AFC West November 4 • A look at the NFC North November 1 • A look at the AFC South October 30 • A look at the NFC East October 27 • A look at the NFC South October 24 |
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• Fantasy Football November 20 • RBBC means less injuries November 13 • Are Browns better with Quinn at QB? November 6 • Want to make a fantasy roster move? October 30 • Jones is the ringmaster in Big D October 16 • Liner notes / Nothing's left out of Johnny Cash album October 13 • Who to play, who to bench? October 9 • Just bench your Raiders and win, baby! October 3 • Better to be lucky than good September 25 • Are you ready for some fantasy football? September 4 |
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A look at the AFC West This is Part VII of my midseason breakdown of all 32 teams in the NFL. I’ll take it position-by-position and keep it in terms of fantasy. Here we go: DENVER BRONCOS State of the team: The AFC West is nearly as bad as the NFC version. Denver leads the division despite having lost three straight. The Broncos, who are 4-4, have a talented offense led by Jay Cutler, but its defense is porous. Denver may make the playoffs as the division winner – only San Diego has a chance to unseat the Broncos – but its defense is just too easy to score on to do any damage once there. Fantasy playoff schedule: CHIEFS, at Panthers, BILLS QB: Cutler started the season on fire, throwing for more than 300 yards in three of the first four games. But he’s tailed off recently, failing to throw for more than 200 yards in the past two games before Sunday’s game against Miami . Cutler has also started to make mistakes. He threw three interceptions against the Dolphins, giving him six in the past three games. But Cutler has solidified himself as a must-start. Denver ’s running game is struggling and the Broncos have shifted to a pass-heavy attack, making Cutler a good play on a weekly basis. Expect his averages (271 ypg/2 TDpg) to keep up for the remainder of the season. RB: This unit is a mess. Selvin Young missed his third game in a row with a groin injury; Michael Pittman re-injured his neck; Andre Hall can’t seem to hang on to the ball; and Ryan Torain, who rushed for 1 yard on three carries in his first game of the season Sunday, doesn’t look ready to take over the role. There’s been a lot of hype over Torain, and he’s likely not on the waiver wire in your league anymore, but he’s got to prove something before he can be trusted. Even if he does show promise, Mike Shanahan will mix in a few carries to Hall, and Young and Pittman when they return from injury. I don’t think Torain is going to be able to put up good enough numbers to be effective. Receivers: Brandon Marshall has had an interesting season. He missed the first two games, came back and went nuts in the next two (totaling 24 catches, 221 yards and two TDs) and then has had three decent games and two stinkers since, including Sunday’s performance (2/27/0). But the guy had a borderline push-off penalty kill a 77-yard touchdown grab Sunday and he’s healthy so he stays in everybody’s lineup. Eddie Royal has been a pleasant surprise. The rookie out of Virginia Tech is averaging nearly six cpg and 66 ypg and his three TDs has made him a great No. 3 WR or flex option. He’s not consistent enough to use as a usual No. 2, though. Brandon Stokley is the obvious third option on this team and isn’t making any rosters. TE Tony Scheffler had a breakout game in Week 2 (6/64/2) and caught four passes in two of the next three games, but a groin injury has sidelined him for the past three games. When he gets back he’s not a bad option if you’re desperate at TE. Defense The Broncos are giving up a lot of points and not forcing many turnovers and they lost their best linebacker D.J. Williams to a knee injury. Avoid this unit at all costs. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS State of the team: The Chargers are lucky they’re in the terrible AFC West, otherwise they might be done. Not only are they just a game behind Denver, but they face the terrible Chiefs and Raiders three times over the final nine games and have the Broncos at home in the regular season finale in a revenge game. That gives them four wins, which means they just have to pick up two wins against Atlanta or Indianapolis at home or Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay on the road to make it to 9-7. My guess is the AFC West crown comes down to that final game – and San Diego will NOT lose that game. Fantasy playoff schedule: RAIDERS, at Chiefs, at Buccaneers QB: San Diego’s defense hasn’t been very good and LaDainian Tomlinson has been gimpy with a banged up big toe, which has all added up to great numbers for Philip Rivers. The Chargers QB is averaging more than 254 ypg and nearly 2.5 TDs pg, which is a huge upgrade over last season when he averaged 197 ypg and threw just 21 TDs for the season (he’s got 19 through eight games this season). I’d expect Rivers’ numbers to go down over the final eight games, though. Tomlinson looks like he’s getting healthy again and the Chargers defense will likely play better with Ron Rivera in charge and Ted Cottrell gone. Rivers will have a few 300/3 games over the final eight, but he’s probably going to average closer to 200 ypg and a throw for 12 TDs over the final eight games. RB: Tomlinson owners had to be encouraged by his Week 8 performance when he ran for 105 yards and caught five balls for 65 yards and a score. It was by far his best game of an injury plagued season. But expect his numbers to go up from here on out. LT averaged 140 total ypg and had eight TDs between Week 10-16 last season to lead many fantasy teams to a title. Expect similar numbers over the next six weeks. As always, he’s a must-play as long as he’s healthy. Darren Sproles is only useful if Tomlinson is injured. Receivers: Antonio Gates is on his usual pace. He’s on pace to catch 60 balls for 800 yards and 10 TD. When you drafted him that’s what you expected, so continue to play him with confidence. Chris Chambers started the season off well, catching four touchdowns in the first three games. But he’s caught only one TD and missed two games over the final five. He caught five passes for 47 yards in the London game two weeks ago and he is what he is at this point: a mediocre No. 3 WR or flex option, nothing more. Vincent Jackson is the better option here. The fourth-year WR is averaging 67 ypg and has scored a TD in the past three games. He’s got a good rapport with Rivers and he’s consistent enough to get in your lineup as a great No. 3 WR or flex option. Defense With 17 sacks and 10 turnovers, San Diego is right in the middle of fantasy defenses. But with Rivera taking over, expect the Chargers to start turning up the heat. If you need a defense, try them out, especially against the Chiefs, Raiders, Falcons and Bucs. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS State of the team: The Chiefs aren’t just a bad team but a team that knows how to lose badly. Two weeks in a row, Kansas City has snatched a loss from the grasp of victory, losing to the Jets and Tampa Bay on the final drive. The only good thing you can say is that at least they were competitive, unlike their previous two losses: a 34-0 thrashing at the hands of Carolina and a 34-10 manhandling by the Titans. There’s really only three possible wins left on the schedule and I say they only get two of those, finishing the season 3-13 and possibly securing next year’s No. 1 pick and the firing of head coach Herman Edwards and GM Carl Petersen. Fantasy playoff schedule: at Broncos, CHARGERS, DOLPHINS QB: The Chiefs have spent the season playing quarterback roulette. They started out with Brodie Croyle, who struggled and then got hurt, moved to Damon Huard, who also got hurt, and now seem to have settled on Tyler Thigpen. The second-year player out of Coastal Carolina had a strong outing against the Jets (280/2), and even caught a TD against the Bucs last week, but hopefully your QB situation isn’t like the Chiefs and you’ve had to resort to even thinking about picking up Thigpen. Avoid at all costs. RB: Larry Johnson owners, who likely took the enigmatic back in the second round of their fantasy draft, saw a little light at the end of the tunnel when he ran for 121 yards in Week 3 and then put up a colossal 198 yards the next week. But then reality hit. Johnson ran for two yards (yeah, two!) against Carolina, and then got into a spot of bother over the bye and hasn’t seen the field since. It was announced Tuesday that Johnson will miss Sunday’s game after commish Roger Goodell put the hammer down. It’s tough to really give advice to Johnson owners. On the one hand, he could be back next week, get his old job back and put up decent numbers down the stretch. On the other, he could return and be a sent to the bench because of his bad behavior and attitude. I’d bet that Edwards plays Johnson because the dude’s job is on the line and Johnson is better than Jamaal Charles, who has been decent in his stead, including last week’s 106 yard performance. Throw in the fact that Johnson’s trade value has never been lower and you have a bad situation. The only thing Johnson owners can do is sit on him, hope he comes back, and the Chiefs’ offense returns to pounding the rock like it did in Weeks 3 and 4. Hey at least he’s got Denver’s porous defense in the first week of the fantasy playoffs.. Receivers: Dwayne Bowe has proven this season that he’s the real deal. Last season he showed that he had the talent, but this year, even though the Chiefs are throwing everybody short of Joe the Plumber behind center, Bowe has continued to put up solid numbers. Through eight games he’s averaging more than 5 catches and 67 yards per contest. He’s also got three scores. In this offense that’s fantastic. He’s not going to have a 150/2 TD kind of game with Thigpen behind center, but he’s a solid option for a No. 2 wideout as of now – if K.C. got a real quarterback he’d automatically become a No. 1 guy. Despite two decent performances over the past two games, Mark Bradley is worthless. Tony Gonzalez has shown that he’s still got it and that even the Chiefs trio of idiots at QB can’t keep him down. He’s no longer the best TE in the league, but you drafted Gonzalez to play him, so do it. Defense This team can cause turnovers, but it can’t seem to get to the quarterback. Kansas City has caused an astonishing 18 turnovers, but has a laughable four sacks. It’s giving up an average of more than 27 ppg. Avoid. OAKLAND RAIDERS State of the team: I’ll tell you right now I don’t want to waste time so we’re going to spend as little amout of time on this crackerjack organization as possible. This offense is pathetic. The defense is OK, but they’re on the field way too much to be effective down the stretch of games. Frankly I’m surprised they have two wins, which is what they’ll likely finish the season with (you look at their schedule and tell me what game they win). Until Al Davis gives up control over player personnel decisions this team will remain the laughingstock of the NFL, which is fine with me. Fantasy playoff schedule: at Chargers, PATRIOTS, TEXANS QB: I mean seriously. Let’s just move on before I make Raiders fans even more angry. This is the same guy that just threw for 31 yards against Atlanta. I think he’s regressing under this coaching staff. Forget about it. In fact, rumors are already swirling about Mike Vick taking over this team in 2009. Hey it can’t hurt. RB: Darren McFadden, Michael Bush and Justin Fargas have all shown glimpses of good things this season. But they’ve also all missed time due to injury, completely disappeared at others, and are all sharing carries. Just like the organization they play for, there’s not enough consistency here to own any of these guys. Receivers: You have to have somebody who can throw the ball to have promising receivers to catch it. Javon Walker, Chaz Schilens, Ronald Curry – all worthless. The only redeeming receiver on this entire team is Zack Miller, who is averaging nearly 40 ypg, because he’s tight end. Defense The Raiders give up a lot of points, but because their counterparts on the offensive side of the ball are so bad, they’re on the field a lot. Due to that they have a respectable 19 sacks and 12 turnovers. Even though they’re overdue to score a couple of touchdowns down the stretch, I still can’t bring myself to recommend them. ... [Read More] E-mail | Print | Comment NEW!
A look at the NFC North This is Part VI of my midseason breakdown of all 32 teams in the NFL. I’ll take it position-by-position and keep it in terms of fantasy. Here we go: MINNESOTA VIKINGS State of the team: With a stout run defense and a strong run game behind Adrian Peterson, most people thought the Vikings were a good bet to make the playoffs. They better hurry up and start winning some games because they’ll be staring at a 7-9 season is they don’t. Minnesota lost three of its first four games and benched Tarvaris Jackson after the second game of the season and inserted Gus Frerotte, who has been OK. Minnesota has won two of three to improve to 3-4, but its last game, a 48-41 loss to Chicago, was embarrassing. I don’t think Minnesota is a better team than Green Bay so it’ll have to win a wild card to make it. That being said, the Vikings do have a favorable stretch to end the season (BEARS, at Lions, at Cardinals, FALCONS, GIANTS) and could finish 4-1, especially if New York is resting its starters for the playoffs. That’s still a tall order and I don’t think Gus and the guys have it in them. The Vikings will finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs. Fantasy playoff schedule: at Lions, at Cardinals, FALCONS QB: Nevermind the past two games in which Frerotte has nearly passed for 300 yards in each game, this is a run-based offense that asks him to be merely a facilitator. Don’t bother with him. RB: With the expectations he had lashed to him coming into the season, Peterson has seemed to be a bit of a disappointment. But that isn’t so. He’s still putting up good numbers if not scoring as much as some owners expected. He’s totaled at least 100 yards in five of the Vikings’ seven games and has had only one stinker (Week 6 at New Orleans, 41 total yards). Unless he gets injured, expect Peterson to run for another 800 yards and 8 TDs. And look at that playoff schedule; wow! If you own him, count your blessings and if you can somehow deal for him, do it. Chester Taylor is of course what he was at the beginning of the season: a handcuff. That’s it. Receivers: After starting the season slow, the newest addition to the Vikings’ receiving corps, Bernard Berrian has been a nice surprise. Berrian, who had just 38 yards in the opener and then didn’t catch a pass in the second game, is averaging nearly 96 ypg and has three scores. He seems to have filled the role of go-to guy in this offense quite well and he and Frerotte have a nice thing going. He’s carved out a nice play in fantasy rosters as well. At this point he’s good No. 2 option and a great No. 3 guy or flex option. Bobby Wade is averaging 50 ypg, but he hasn’t scored and he’s not likely to explode any time soon. Aundrae Allison, Sidney Rice and Garrett Mills are all unplayable right now. Defense Minnesota’s defense has been somewhat disappointing in real life, but in fantasy it’s a stat-stuffer. The Vikings have 16 sacks, 11 turnovers, two touchdowns and a safety and even three block if your league likes that sort of thing. The only downside is the Vikings are giving up an average of nearly 24 ppg, but if your league doesn’t count points-against or doesn’t weigh it heavily than this defense is a good one. Continue to use it with confidence. One warning: If Pat and Kevin Williams are dinged for violating the drug policy, Minnesota’s run defense will be affected. Keep an eye on the situation and if you have better options than you might want to consider them. GREEN BAY PACKERS State of the team: This has been a hot-and-cold team. Green Bay started the season strong, going 2-0 with two big wins against division rivals out of the gates. Then the Packers lost three straight, including a bad loss to Atlanta at home. Since, Green Bay has humbled the Seahawks at Qwest and dismantled Indianapolis at Lambeau. The Packers are coming off a bye in Week 8. The down streak had a lot to do with injuries on the defensive side of the ball. The offense has been consistently good. Two big games against Chicago in the second half will likely determine who wins the division. I think they’re better than Chicago, so they’ll win the division. Fantasy playoff schedule: TEXANS, at Jaguars, at Bears QB: Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been just a pleasant surprise for Packers fans he’s been a nice surprise for fantasy owners who took a chance on him late in their drafts. Rodgers is averaging nearly 240 ypg and has 15 total touchdowns, including three rushing. Those rushing touchdowns are like gold to most fantasy owners – not so much to Ryan Grant owners. Rodgers has had a shoulder issue since Week 3, but he seems to be getting better each week and hasn’t missed a game because of it. If you own Rodgers, keep him in your lineup even through tough matchups like Tennessee and Carolina. The only guy your benching him for at this point is Drew Brees. If he stays healthy he should replicate his first half over the next eight weeks (maybe a few more passing TDs and only one rushing), which is all his owners can ask for. RB: Ryan Grant was maybe the Pickup of the Year in 2008, but he’s been just OK in 2007. He’s averaging a little more than 66 yards pg and has caught four passes for just eight yards (yuck) compared to 30 catches a year ago – obviously Rodgers isn’t looking to his checkdowns as much as Favre did. Like I wrote in a column three weeks ago, I like Grant to have a good second half. He’s rushed for 90 and 105 yards in his past two games, including his first touchdown of the season against Indy two weeks ago. He’s too good of a fit for this offense and gets too many touches not to be effective. If you own him he’s a great second option or flex guy. I say get him in your lineup unless your loaded at the RB spot. He’ll score more TDs going forward. Receivers: Donald Driver is just the possession guy in this offense now; this is the Greg Jennings Show from here on out. Driver is averaging just 11.4 ypc and has just two scores. He has yet to eclipse the 76 yard mark and, besides a long bomb TD that was called back in the opener, he’s not getting open deep. Jennings, on the other hand, is. He’s averaging nearly 20 ypc and, besides a stinker against Indy, his worst game is 84 yards receiving against Seattle. He should score six more TDs over the final nine games and is a must-play in your offense. Driver, on the other, hand is just a No. 3 or flex option at this point. James Jones has shown flashes, but he’s buried here. If Jennings gets hurt, though, trust his numbers to explode. Donald Lee is averaging just 20 ypg and has two scores. This is not the same offense that made Bubba Franks a TD machine three years ago. Defense This was one of the best defenses in fantasy last season and it hasn’t been bad this year, despite a rash of injuries. DT Cullen Jenkins is out for the year and that’s big loss, but Al Harris is expected back this week and Atari Bigby is on the mend. A.J. Hawk is getting better as well. This unit has 12 sacks, but its bread and butter is the turnover-into-touchdown. Of the 14 turnovers they’ve forced, the Packers have 13 interceptions and five of them for touchdowns. That’s amazing. You have to play this unit even if they do give up a lot of points. Just don’t expect the same production. The sack totals will likely go up, but I can foresee more than one more TD over the final nine games. That said, play them with confidence. CHICAGO BEARS State of the team: Many prognosticators thought Chicago would struggle this season after not improving their offense in the offseason. But the Bears have played well and are tied with Green Bay atop the division at 4-3. Kyle Orton has taken the reins of the offense and done well and the defense has done its job of creating havoc and turnovers. Chicago has won a number of shootout (surprisingly) and may make a run at the division. Four of Chicago’s next nine games are division games, so really its own fate is in its hands. Win three of those four games and the Bears could win the division. More likely, Chicago will split them, finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs with Minnesota. Fantasy playoff schedule: JAGUARS, SAINTS, at Packers QB: Orton had a touch start to the season, throwing for a total of 299 yards in a win at Indy and a loss at Carolina. But since, Orton is averaging 274 ypg and has tossed 2 scores pg. Those are impressive numbers and are good enough to find their way to a starting fantasy lineup. The question is, will it likely continue? I say no. Orton has improved, but you can’t expect those numbers against defenses like Tennessee, Green Bay (twice) and Jacksonville. He’s carved out a nice role, and deserves a spot on a team in any league, but I wouldn’t lock him into your lineup just yet. Wait and see and if your desperate play him against the likes of Detroit, St. Louis and New Orleans. RB: Matt Forte is quietly putting together one of the best rookie campaigns for a running back since … well Adrian Peterson. But anyway, Forte is sure making Cedric Benson look terrible. The rookie out of Tulane is averagine 105 total yg and has six TDs. His worst game yardage-wise was in Week 7 against Detroit (61 yards) was offset by two scores. He’s put up good numbers and he’s done it consistently. He finds a way into your lineup every week. Kevin Jones looks fully recovered from his knee injury, but he’s been completely overshadowed by Forte. He ran for 36 yards in that Detroit game, but other than that, and Week 1 when he was still splitting carries with Forte officially, has been getting 1-3 carries pg. He’s useless unless Forte goes down. Receivers: Chicago spent the offseason grooming Devin Hester to be its big-play guy in the offense and fantasy owners took a chance on him late because of it. It didn’t look good at the outset. Hester had one catch in each of the first two games for a total of 13 yards and then missed the third game with a rib injury. But starting in Week 4, Hester started to pay dividends. Hester has averaged a respectable 50 ypg since then, including a breakout game of 6 catches for 86 yards against Atlanta. He’s only scored twice, but the best might be yet to come for him. Opposing teams have kicked short lately, completely taking Hester away from the return game. Because of that the Bears may be looking to get him even more involved in the offense just to get the ball in his hands. He’s not a bad flex option at this point, especially if Brandon Lloyd remains sidelined with a knee injury. At the beginning of the season it looked like Lloyd was going to be the No. 1 guy here. He was averaging more than 62 ypg before the injury derailed his season. He is questionable to go this Sunday. His addition will hurt Hester’s production and will completely nullify Rashied Davis, who has been posting decent numbers since Lloyd went down. TE Greg Olsen is averaging more than 40 ypg and has two scores. He’s been consistently sound and isn’t a bad option if you’re desperate at the position. Defense As usual the Bears’ D finds itself at the top of the fantasy defensive rankings, especially in leagues that count special teams. Usually it’s Hester scoring the touchdowns on returns, but he has yet to return a punt or kick for a score this season. This year it’s been punt and kick blocks that have score twice and at to that three other defensive scores and you have a star defensive unit. Chicago likely won’t score as many defensive touchdowns over the next nine games, but they’ll improve the sack number (14) and will likely double its turnover number (16), which means more and more points. This is a must-start unit if you’re lucky enough to own it. DETROIT LIONS State of the team: Poor Detroit. The Lions have been abysmal since Barry Sanders left and it looks like it’s only going to get worse before it gets better. This is a lost season and now that the team has fired Matt Millen the ax is hovering above the head of Rod Marinelli. They’ll be lucky to win two games this season and they just traded away Roy Williams for draft picks. The good news: They have the most fascinating, fun-to-watch WR in football in Calvin Johnson. Fantasy playoff schedule: VIKINGS, at Colts, SAINTS QB: Since absent-mindedly running out of the end zone against Minnesota, Dan Orlovsky hasn’t made that many mistakes. The problem is he hasn’t done too much good either. Orlovsky hasn’t thrown an interception since the game against Chicago, but he’s only thrown three TDs in three games and hasn’t eclipsed 265 yards. It remains to be seen if he’s got what it takes to be an NFL quarterback. What doesn’t remain to be seen is if he’s a fantasy QB this season. He’s not. RB: Rudi Johnson killed any fantasy value in this backfield – what there was to begin with anyway. Kevin Smith was slated to be the starter entering the season, but the rookie out of Central Florida has been splitting carries with Johnson since the ex-Bengal came on board. Johnson has 54 carries to Smith’s 56. It’s an even distribution nearly all the way around, with Johnson at a high of 83 yards against San Francisco and Smith at 62 against Minnesota. Smith bests Johnson with 3 touchdowns to 1 and his pass-catching ability (22/146). This is basically a long way to say neither of these guys is a good option in fantasy unless one gets injured, and even then, it’s borderline. Receivers: Calvin Johnson is a freak of nature. Standing 6-foot-5 and weighing in at 235, Johnson can battle any DB and with all kinds of speed he can run past them as well – his 96-yard TD catch against Houston two weeks ago proved that. With Roy Williams in Dallas, the only problem here is Orlovsky. Can the inexperienced QB get Johnson the ball? I think the coaching staff will start to take the chains off Orlovsky a bit over the next nine games and that might mean better numbers for Johnson. Don’t expect the kind of numbers that will make Johnson the best WR in the game in a few years, but he’ll likely finish the season with 1250 yards and 10 TDs, giving him 650+ yards and 5 TDs over the next nine games. He’s going to have some stinkers, but he’ll also have some 7/150/2 games. Stick with him and play him. There’s nothing else here. Defense You’re kidding, right? The 15 sacks is respectable, but this unit gets run over on a weekly basis (The Lions are giving up more than 27 ppg) and don’t expect the seven turnovers to more than double. Avoid. ... [Read More] E-mail | Print | Comment NEW!
A look at the AFC South This is Part V of my midseason breakdown of all 32 teams in the NFL. I’ll take it position-by-position and keep it in terms of fantasy. Here we go: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS State of the team: After Sunday’s loss to division rival Tennessee, the Colts have been written off as done by many analysts in the NFL. I think it might be early for that. If they can split the next two games against New England and Pittsburgh, the Colts (3-4, tied for second with Jacksonville and Houston) have Houston, San Diego, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit. Indy finishes up with a showdown against Jacksonville and a Tennessee team that may have clinched the division and will likely be resting starters. I could see them finishing 9-7 or even 10-6 if they can top the Jaguars in Week 16. Fantasy playoff schedule: BENGALS, LIONS, at Jaguars QB: As I predicted in the preseason, Peyton Manning has struggled coming back from his offseason knee injuries. He’s throwing for 250 yards pg, which isn’t bad, but he’s got just 10 TDs and he’s thrown nearly as many picks (9). But don’t write off Manning just yet. He should improve once Joseph Addai comes back from injury and the schedule down the stretch is very favorable. At the least, look for him to throw for 2,250 yards and 15 TDs over the final eight games. If you can deal for him, I say go for it. RB: Addai has been sidelined by a hamstring issue for two weeks, but before the injury he wasn’t putting up impressive numbers anyway. If you throw out the Week 6 game in which he was hurt, Addai was averaging a measly 48 total ypg and had a decent four TDs through five games. Those aren’t the numbers owners expected from their first-round pick. Don’t expect a lot more once Addai returns. Dominic Rhodes has performed well in his spot and has likely earned a few carries even with a healthy Addai in the backfield. He’s still worth starting, but he’s not going to lead you to a title. Rhodes is worthless once Addai returns. Receivers: Reggie Wayne has struggled the past two games, but no worries. He’s fine. With Manning’s numbers likely to increase, expect Wayne’s numbers to follow suit. He starts. Marvin Harrison is an interesting player. He’s had three good games out of seven. He and Wayne seem to have switched places over the past couple of season. I think Harrison remains a nice No. 3 guy or flex option, but you can’t expect consistent numbers from him. Anthony Gonzalez is only useful in point-per-reception leagues, and he’s only a fringe guy at that. Dallas Clark should have a great second half as long as he stays healthy. He’s had back-to-back good games and should put up 5-6 more over the next eight weeks. Defense Even with Bob Sanders expected back soon, this unit is pretty vanilla. The Colts have just 10 sacks and 10 turnovers and likely no upside. No reason to play them. HOUSTON TEXANS State of the team: After tough three road losses to open the season, Houston suffered a demoralizing loss to the Colts in Week 4 in which fill-in QB Sage Rosenfels. Many thought that was a season-killer. But the Texans have strung together three straight wins to get them back into the thick of the playoff hunt. But starting with this week’s road game against Minnesota, the Texans have a brutal final stretch with games against Baltimore, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Green Bay and Tennessee. Don’t expect Houston to make the playoffs, but they’ll sneak up and win a few games down the stretch. Fantasy playoff schedule: at Packers, TITANS, at Raiders QB: Since the first two games of the season, in which he averaged just under 200 yards and threw only one touchdown, Matt Schaub has been brilliant. The Texans QB averaged 308 yards pg and thrown nine TDs in the past four games (he missed the Rosenfels debacle vs. Indy) and has been feeding Andre Johnson consistently. He may have finally figured things out. I say go ahead and pick up Schaub if he’s available in your league and you have a spot for him. But don’t expect this trend to continue. Most of these numbers have come against inferior competition and, like I said earlier, the Texans schedule gets very tough from this point out. RB: Steve Slaton has been a pleasant surprise for the owners who took a shot on him. The rookie out of West Virginia is averaging nearly 86 total ypg and has six TDs. Those are great numbers for a sleeper pick. I think he’ll continue to post good numbers, but he’s going to have a couple of tough weeks, including the next two (Minn., Balt.) and Week 15 against Tennessee. Ahman Green is worthless, he’s too old and constantly hurt, and Darius Walker and Chris Taylor have obviously been relegated to backup duty. Receivers: Andre Johnson is fast becoming the best wide receiver in the league. Since Schaub turned things around, Johnson has been a monster, averaging more than 10 catches pg and nearly 150 ypg. Those are incredible numbers. He’s in your lineup as long as he’s healthy. Kevin Walter has been consistent this season, with two monster games, including last week against Cincinnati. He’s decent No 3 WR, but don’t trust him in limited leagues. TE Owen Daniels has the tools and he broke out with a huge game two weeks ago (6/66/2). He’s too consistent at the tight end position not to be in your lineup every week – just don’t expect more than two more big games. Defense In terms of fantasy, no team has performed worse than the Texans this season. Just 11 sacks and eight turnovers and no TDs has left them at the bottom of most leagues. But here’s the thing: they’re not that bad. Mario Williams is a good pass rusher and DeMeco Ryans is a beast at linebacker. When a defense in underperforming in numbers only that usually means they’re due. If you’re hurting at defense and you have to pick from the dregs, try out Houston. The Texans will likely start getting more turnovers and may score a touchdown or three over the final eight weeks. TENNESSEE TITANS State of the team: Tennessee is rolling. Sitting in first at 7-0, the Titans have used defense and a reliable running game to beat teams into submission. They face a number of tougher teams over the final nine weeks, including games against Green Bay, Chicago, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh, but Tennessee has enough cupcakes to be a lock to win the division and likely a first-round bye. The one problem in terms of fantasy is that Tennessee may lock things up too early and rest some of its starters in Week 16 against Pittsburgh. Plan for that to happen. Fantasy playoff schedule: BROWNS, at Texans, STEELERS QB: There’s really not much to say here. Kerry Collins is simply a game-manager that hands off a lot to LenDale White and Chris Johnson. He hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards yet this season. I can’t say avoid strongly enough. RB: Because Tennessee is a run-based offense with a strong offensive line, there are two strong options here – one for each type of league. LenDale White is great in touchdown-heavy leagues. His 10 TDs leads the NFL and he’s rushing for a respectable 50 ypg. Johnson is a better option in yardage and ppr leagues. The rookie has proven he can run to the outside or between the tackles and he’ll likely become more of a receiving threat over the final nine games. Overall Johnson has more upside than White (some have compared Johnson’s combination of speed and elusiveness to Marshall Faulk), but either one should be in your lineup on a weekly basis. Receivers: Let’s move along, there’s nothing to see here. TE Bo Scaife leads the team in receiving with 28 catches for 318 yards. But his 1 TD makes him really only a bye-replacement or a desperation play at best. Defense Simply put this is a dominant defense on the field and in fantasy. With 18 sacks and 16 turnovers the Titans are harassing teams on a weekly basis. Throw in the fact they’ve scored two TDs and are giving up a little more than 12 ppg and you have a must-start. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS State of the team: This team is hard to figure out. The Jags seem to have all the pieces to be a playoff contender, but losing home games to Cleveland is unacceptable. Jacksonville seems to step it up against good teams on the road, having won at Denver and Indy, but now they have to figure out how to win at home (Jags are 1-3 at home). To me, it just doesn’t seem to be their year. I say they finish 8-8 and out of the playoffs Fantasy playoff schedule: at Bears, PACKERS, COLTS QB: With just three interceptions and some strong games last season, David Garrard was chic pick going into this season. But he’s been more careless with the ball this season. He is averaging 220 yards through the air and 23 more on the ground pg, but he’s averaging only one TD per game. Don’t expect these to change over the next eight weeks. Because of that, there are a dozen better QBs, but, because of his rushing numbers, he is a better option than guys like Jake Delhomme, Chad Pennington and Matt Cassel. RB: I was high on Maurice Jones-Drew going into the season because I thought Fragile Fred Taylor would get hurt at some point and Jones-Drew would take over. That’s really only happened in one time – the Denver game – and what did Jones-Drew do? He totaled 148 yards and two TDs. Because he’s getting the bulk of the goalline carries, Jones-Drew has five total TDs. But he’s been very inconsistent in terms of yardage. He’s had two great games (he totaled 166 yards vs. Indy), but other than it’s been pretty mediocre numbers. But if you drafted Jones-Drew it was likely to start and unless you picked up somebody like Steve Slaton or Chris Johnson late, you have to start him – just hope Taylor goes down with an injury sooner rather than later. Taylor has had one good game, but he’s been terrible in most of the others and he doesn’t have a score yet. Avoid. Receivers: To be honest, Jacksonville really doesn’t throw enough to have a good receiver. But Matt Jones, who is averaging more than five catches pg and 46 ypg is an OK option if you’re desperate. He hasn’t been disciplined yet for his offseason arrest for drugs so he likely won’t be. Mike Walker has shown flashes (6 catches for 107 vs. Pittsburgh), but an injury derailed his season and he’s a wait-and-see guy now. TE Marcedes Lewis has scored twice, but he’s far too inconsitent to start. Defense The Jaguars D always seems to produce from year to year, but this season it has been pretty weak. With just nine sacks and nine turnovers, it’s only been salvaged by two TDs. This is too good of a unit to have such small numbers, so if you own them keep playing Jacksonville’s D, especially against Cincinnati and Detroit over the next two weeks. ... [Read More] E-mail | Print | Comment NEW!
A look at the NFC East Took a little time away for the weekend. Let's jump right back into it. This is Part IV of my midseason breakdown of all 32 teams in the NFL. I’ll take it position-by-position and keep it in terms of fantasy. Here we go: DALLAS COWBOYS State of the team: Like the Cowboys, Tony Romo owners were breezing along before tragedy struck three weeks ago when Romo broke his pinkie against Arizona. Since then Dallas has lost to the Rams and barely beat Tampa Bay at home. You can imagine the gnashing of teeth in Dallas as the Cowboys go from Super Bowl contender to also-ran. Now they’re talking about sitting back-up journeyman Brad Johnson for Brooks Bollinger. Not good times. Romo is expected back sometime in mid-November, but until then all of the Cowboys players and the Cowboys themselves will struggle. Fantasy playoff schedule: at Steelers, GIANTS, RAVENS QB: When Romo gets back in mid-November, you get him back in your lineup. It’s pretty simple. Before his injury, Romo had thrown for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in four games. He’s an elite quarterback. His playoff schedule is pretty brutal, and he’s likely going to thrown a mediocre performance in their somewhere (especially if you get dinged for turnovers), but his upside, especially now with Roy Williams in the mix, is too great. RB: As expected, Marion Barber has been a difference maker. He’s averaging more than 110 total ypg and has seven touchdowns. If you took Barber you’re getting what you expected and he’s in your lineup every week. Now just cross your fingers and hope his hard running style doesn’t result in a serious injury. Felix Jones brought some explosiveness out of the backfield until a hamstring injury caused him to miss the past two games. Surprisingly he’s been more effective as a runner than a receiver, having caught only two passes for 10 yards. He’s rushed for 266 yards and scored three touchdowns. When he’s healthy again (and Dallas’ offense is healthy again), Jones is an intriguing flex option if your league gives you points for special teams scores. Receivers: Williams brings another dimension to an already potent passing game. It’ll be interesting to see how Romo spreads the ball around to all of his playmakers when he gets back. At full strength, this passing offense is scary. I think Williams’ addition does downgrade Owens and Witten a bit. The defenes won’t be able to be key on them as much, but Williams will likely take away a few touchdowns and yards from the duo, who, before Williams got there, were options 1A and 1B. There was no No. 2. Now Williams brings a legitimate threat to the other side. All three, especially Owens and Witten, are must-starts when healthy (Witten dinged up his ribs on Sunday, but should be OK). Defense This unit hasn’t lived up to its preseason billing. Giving up more than 23 points pg, the Cowboys will likely continue to give up big plays and big points after the loss Pacman Jones and Roy Williams. And Dallas doesn’t force enough turnovers (eight in eight games) to be a good unit. NEW YORK GIANTS State of the team: A big win Sunday against AFC power Pittsburgh moved the Giants to 6-1 and put them atop the NFC East. Before Sunday, the defending Super Bowl champs hadn’t really played anybody (wins over Seattle, S.F., Cincy, St. Louis) but Washington in the opener and had a bad game on the road against Cleveland. Sunday’s win proves that the NFC is the Giants until somebody knocks them off. Eli Manning had a few hiccups in the previous two games but he made just enough plays to beat the Steelers. WR Plaxico Burress has been a bit of scoundrel this season. He’s already been suspended one game and he didn’t start against Pittsburgh because he missed a rehab appointment. New York has proved that it can play without Burress (Domenique Hixon had a good game in his stead against Seattle), but they’d probably prefer to have him on the field and in a good state of mind. Fantasy playoff schedule: EAGLES, at Cowboys, PANTHERS QB: Manning started the year with four games of more than 200 yards passing and seven touchdowns, including a rushing score. But he’s come back down to earth a bit over the past three, having failed to throw for more than 200 yards and a score per game. He’s going to be a roller-coaster for the rest of the season. The Giants just run the ball to well as long as Brandon Jacobs is toting the rock and there are going to be games that Manning just doesn’t attempt enough passes to make a difference. He’s proven that he’s a great NFL quarterback, but he remains just a mediocre fantasy QB. RB: I don’t think anybody can argue with the talent of Brandon Jacobs. When healthy, the guys simply runs over people. He’s averaging 80 ypg on the ground and the Giants have built their offense around him. Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw haven’t poached as many carries as Jacobs’ owners worried and he’s remained surprisingly healthy. He doesn’t catch many passes (5 through seven games), but as long as he’s healthy he’s a must-start. Now the worry I’ve always had with Jacobs, and the reason I avoid him, is the health factor. He hasn’t been hurt this season, but that prospect is always there. But if you own Jacobs you know that, and probably have Ward as a handcuff. Receivers: Burress is simply a headcase. But when he plays he’s great. If you own him, play him – that’s obvious. If Burress continues to mess around and gets suspended again or he gets hurt, Hixon proved that he can step into that role and produce. Of course he’d have to prove it against a tougher defense than Seattle’s, but he’s got skill. We all know what Amani Toomer will give you: He’s going to catch some passes for around 50 yards and he’ll score a touchdown every full moon. Don’t bother. The more intriguing receivers here are Steve Smith and Kevin Boss. Smith isn’t ready to put up big numbers, but if Toomer gets hurt (always a possibility at his age) he could turn into the Giants version of Bobby Engram. Boss has tremendous upside. He’s only caught passes in four games, but it’s four of the past five and he’s got scores in two, including last Sunday vs. Pittsburgh (4/34/1). If you need a backup TE, go for Boss, he’s likely to improve down the stretch. Defense The loss of Osi Umenyiora for the season was supposed to make this a vulnerable unit. Yeah, so much for that. The Giants lead the league with 26 sacks and are allowing just over 14 ppg. Their nine turnovers leaves room for improvement as well. If you own this D, play it with confidence. WASHINGTON REDSKINS State of the team: Jim Zorn looks like he’s building a winner in D.C. The offensive stars – Jason Campbell, Clinton Portis, Santana Moss – have all bought into the offense and the defense is playing great. Is this team likely to win the East? Probably not, but you have to like its chances for a playoff spot. Fantasy playoff schedule: at Ravens, at Bengals, GIANTS QB: Campbell is this year’s version of David Garrard: He’s made the leap into respectable fantasy quarterback (220 ypg) and he is simple not throwing interceptions (an astonishing 0 through eight games). But he’s not yet the kind of quarterback that’s going to lead you to a title. The Skins’ red zone offense is too run heavy for him to throw enough touchdowns (he’s averaging 1 TD pg). At this point he’s a great backup and a good bye week replacement, but don’t expect more – yet. RB: If we could re-draft the first round, does Portis go No. 1? He’d be the leading candidate I think. He’s mowing over tackles and he looks re-energized in Zorn’s West Coast offense. He’s gone over 100 yards in the past five games, including 175 against the Browns, and his seven scores and 11 catches is respectable. He’s a no-brainer start every week. Shaun Alexander is a non-factor. Receivers: Campbell’s emergence has helped elevate Moss back to must-start status. But be warned Moss owners he will burn you at some point. Moss is known for disappearing and he did just that in Week 5. Coming off three straight games in which he didn’t catch less than seven passes, Moss put up a goose egg against the Eagles and cost many owners tremendously. But throw out the goose egg and his two-catch performance in Week 6, and Moss is averaging 106 ypg and nearly a TD pg, which makes him a must-start. Antwaan Randle El is going to get you about 3-5 catches and 40-60 yards receiving per contest but he rarely scores and he’s not a difference-maker. Only use him if you’re desperate. Chris Cooley only has one TD, but he’s too good at the TE spot to not play. In fact, I see him scoring five TDs in the next eight games so be encouraged Cooley owners. Defense In the real world, the Redskins’ defense has been solid, giving up a respectable 17 ppg. But in fantasy it’s been fairly awful. Moss’ punt return was the team’s first score (and that’s only if you get special teams points) and the team’s 11 sacks through eight games is terrible. Throw in the fact they have only eight turnovers and you have a defense that is basically doing it with smoke and mirrors or about to explode. With Jason Taylor undergoing more surgery and dealing with an infection now, I think it’s the former. Avoid unless you disagree. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES State of the team: Philadelphia seems to be the forgotten team in the East. Sitting at 4-3, the Eagles are definitely in the race for the division title, but people have basically written them off as a wild-card team at best. I don’t agree. If Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook can stay healthy, this team can win the division. The addition of DeSean Jackson and the return of Kevin Curtis makes the offense more explosive and the defense is always tough. But it always comes down to health with this team and I see a major injury in their future (McNabb or Westbrook), which will cause them to miss the playoffs. But I’ve been wrong before. Fantasy playoff schedule: at Giants, BROWNS, at Redskins QB: There’s no doubt: When healthy, McNabb is a good fantasy QB. He doesn’t run much anymore (although he went for 6/25/1 on Sunday) but he throws a lot in that offense and he puts up good numbers. But can he stay healthy. Apparently he’s been in great health all season, but this is a guy that failed to finish the 2005 and 2006 seasons and missed significant time last year. Sorry if I just don’t trust the guy to finish the year intact. But if he does he’s a must-start, of course. RB: I could write the same paragraph in terms of Brian Westbrook, except the Eagles RB has already missed significant time with ankle and rib injuries. Westbrook looked completely healthy on Sunday and should be in your lineup for the rest of the season. The question with Westbrook is should owners trade him high? I say yes. There’s no doubt that he can lead you to a title. But the guy just misses too much time to be a factor. If you can get a great WR (Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, etc.) or RB (Portis, Barber, etc.) I say do it. Correll Buckhalter is a good start whenever Westbrook misses time. Receivers: Throw out Jackson’s Week 5 stinker (1 catch, 8 yards) and the rookie from Cal has averaged more than 82 ypg and has been a playmaker in the Philly offense. The return of Kevin Curtis will hurt Jackson’s stats a little, but his 72 yards receiving Sunday showed that it won’t take too much. He doesn’t score enough to be a No. 2 WR but he makes a great flex option or No. 3 guy. Curtis caught three passes for 45 yards in his return Sunday, but he’s not going to put up the numbers he did in 2007 – Jackson’s the man now. He’s really only an option if you’re desperate. Hank Baskett, Reggie Brown and Jason Avant aren’t worth owning – even if Jackson gets hurt. LJ Smith has the tools, but he just can’t seem to put it together. He’s too inconsistent to be started in fantasy leagues. Defense Philly D coordinator Jim Johnson gives offenses headaches. His blitz schemes get burned for touchdowns once in awhile, but often it creates turnovers and produces many sacks. As usual, this defense will score you points and is a must-start every week. ... [Read More] E-mail | Print | Comment NEW!
A look at the NFC South This is Part III of my midseason breakdown of all 32 teams in the NFL. I’ll take it position-by-position and keep it in terms of fantasy. Here we go: CAROLINA PANTHERS State of the team: With Jake Delhomme back behind center, the Panthers are having a solid season once again. Carolina is tied with Tampa Bay for first in the South and has a number of quality wins, including last week’s thumping of division rival New Orleans. If Carolina wins Sunday against Arizona, it could realistically reel off three more wins (at Raiders, LIONS, at Falcons) to all but seal a playoff spot. Expect the Panthers to win 11 games and win the South. Fantasy playoff schedule: BUCS, BRONCOS, at Giants QB: Delhomme is an efficient quarterback who tops out at about 280 yards and two scores. He’s just not going to give you much more than that. The problem is he has too many clunkers (e.g. 191 yards, 0 TD vs. Minn.) to be trusted as a No. 1 fantasy QB. He’s also going to have trouble in the fantasy playoffs with Tampa Bay coming to town and then going on the road to the Giants. You could probably get some nice numbers from Delhomme over the next five weeks, but after that don’t trust him. RB: John Fox has taken a page from the book of Mike Shanahan. With Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams both running well this season, Fox is usually riding the hot guy each week. In week 1 it was Williams (18 carries, 86 yards) then Stewart got the call in week 2 (14/77/2 TDs). I was high on Williams before the season because I felt Stewart wouldn’t stay healthy for the entire season. So far he has, which has made Williams basically useless. Stewart has been more consistent than Williams (and has scored more), but again you can’t predict what week Fox will give most of the carries to Williams and leave Stewart owners pulling their hair out. The fact is, unlike Tennessee, Carolina’s offense is too diversified, so unless the Panthers are playing K.C. (Williams and Stewart combined to run for 200 yards vs. the Chiefs) or one of these guys gets hurt you can’t trust either of them. Receivers: After missing the first two games because of suspension, Steve Smith seems to be rounding into midseason form. He’s gone over the century mark in his past two games and has six catches in his previous four games. He’s a must-start every week and could be a difference maker in the playoffs. Back in Carolina, Muhsin Muhammad has become a productive receiver once again. He has yet to catch less than three balls in a game and his 147-yard performance against Atlanta showed that he’s still got it. The problems is with Smith gaining steam, Muhammad is going to continue to see his numbers decrease. He’s nothing more than a flex option and really not a good one at that. D.J. Hackett and Jeff King are a waste of time. Defense Carolina’s defense hasn’t allowed many points (14 pg), but has yet to really make a difference in the sack (11) and takeaway category (9). Like Delhomme, the defensive unit could put up some nice numbers over the next five weeks. With a guy like Julius Peppers, expect the sack numbers to increase and with Kurt Warner the turnover machine coming to town this week that takeaway number could double. But with three competent offenses in the fantasy playoffs I don’t see them giving you bunches of points when you’ll need them most. ATLANTA FALCONS State of the team: The Falcons are a nice surprise this season. After everything that could have possibly gone wrong did in 2007, Atlanta has four wins this season, including an impressive road win against Green Bay. Just don’t expect it to last. Matt Ryan has been great behind center but the law of rookie quarterbacks says that most struggle mightily no matter how physically gifted or mentally prepared they are (see Peyton Manning). It’s just a matter of time. I see this Sunday’s matchup with Philadelphia as the beginning of some of those tough lessons for Ryan. Expect Eagles D coordinator Jim Johnson to blitz Ryan unmercifully Sunday. I’m not saying the Falcons won’t win another game – heck they have Oakland in two weeks – but they’ll likely finish 7-9 and fantasy owners need to take that into consideration. Fantasy playoff schedule: at Saints, BUCS, at Vikings QB: For a rookie quarterback, Matt Ryan has been exceptional. He’s thrown multiple picks in only one game and has yet to lose a fumble. For a rookie quarterback that’s amazing. In terms of fantasy, however, he’s been just mediocre. He has as many multiple touchdown games as multiple interception games and only one game in which he threw for more than 200 yards. Focusing on its defense and run game, Atlanta is doing the right thing with Ryan. It just makes him unplayable in fantasy. RB: Given his first chance at his very own starting gig, Michael Turner busted onto the scene in Week 1, rushing for 220 yards and a pair of TDs. He’s been up-and-down since, literally. Since running wild over Detroit in the opener, his rushing numbers look like this: 42, 104, 56, 121, 54. He’s scored four times since week 1, but three came in a big win against porous K.C. Turner seems to post big numbers when Atlanta wins, which I believe doesn’t bode well for him over the next nine weeks. I could see Turner having nice games against Oakland, New Orleans (twice) and Denver. But with Tampa Bay and Minnesota in Weeks 15 and 16, when it comes to the fantasy playoffs I think Turner will be a dud. Besides trading him (which I’d recommend doing after the Raiders game while his stock his high), Turner owners are stuck because he has distinguished himself as a must-start. After years of being the fantasy siren song, Jerious Norwood has actually put up some nice numbers this season (9 touches, 57 yards pg) as a change-of-pace back. But unless Turner gets hurt or the Falcons offense morphs into the Saints offense (Norwood as Reggie Bush), he’s nothing more than a bench-warmer or desperate flex option in 12-team leagues. Receivers: Besides Week 1, Roddy White has been the Falcons leading receiver and has distinguished himself as a top-15 fantasy WR. He’s averaging nearly 100 yards pg and has scored in half of his games, including the past two in which he’s posted great numbers (17 catches, 244 yards, 2 TDs). Since Ryan has little else to throw the ball to, White is a must-start, but I don’t see him putting up more than three great games over the next nine. With Ryan’s numbers likely declining over the next nine weeks, and White getting even more attention from defenses, he’ll have a harder time posting those big numbers. But like Turner, White owners are painted into a corner, forced to play him because of what he’s done in Atlanta’s fast start. If you can parlay White’s good start and deal him for someone like Steve Smith or Jerricho Cotchery, do it. Defense With just 10 sacks and eight takeaways, Atlanta’s defense is in the bottom half of the league. It’ll likely stay there. Don’t bother. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS State of the team: The formula for the Tampa Bay Bucs is simple: control the game with a ferocious defense and ball-control offense, which relies on a decent run game and short passing plays (and the occasional deep hook up to Antonio Bryant). So far it’s worked. Tampa Bay is 5-2 and tied with Carolina for first in the South. But I can’t help but think they’ve been doing it with smoke and mirrors. I mean they’ve had either Brian Griese or Jeff Garcia behind center and Earnest Graham or Warrick Dunn lugging the rock. That just smells like a breakdown waiting to happen. Like last year, though, they’ll probably win 6 more games and get into the playoffs – only to be crushed in the first round again. Fantasy playoff schedule: at Panthers, at Falcons, CHARGERS QB: Talk about hit-and-miss. Whether it’s Griese or Garcia, these are the numbers for the passing game through seven games for Tampa Bay: 221, 160, 407, 149, 93, 173, 310. I mean, c’mon that’s ridiculous. Throw in the fact that Jon Gruden just rides whoever is hot and you can’t trust either of these guys for more than a spot start against a team like Kansas City, which Tampa Bay takes on next week (just make sure Garcia is still starting). RB: If you drafted Earnest Graham in the second round based on what he did last year then you can’t really complain. He’s actually on pace to rush for 1042 yards compared to 898 last season and he’s on pace to score nine touchdowns compared to 10 a year ago (Graham didn’t run much in Tampa Bay’s first two games last season, but you get the point). He’s not likely going to lead you to a championship (unless he’s your third RB and used as a flex option), but you knew what you were getting when you drafted him. Warrick Dunn has 423 yards rushing this season, but he rarely scores and he’s too old to be a difference maker. Even if Graham goes down, he’s not worth much. Let’s move on. Receivers: With Joey Galloway hobbled since Week 2, Antonio Bryant has stepped into the Bucs’ No. 1 receiver role nicely. He’s had three quality starts, but he’s also had two mediocre ones and two clunkers (0 catches in Week 2). If you’re counting on him for ore than a couple spot starts, you’re in trouble. Galloway is expected back this week, but unless you have the deepest of benches leave him alone until he proves he’s healthy (even if he is though Gruden may elect to keep feeding Bryant. The Bucs coach called Galloway out last week, saying he was the team’s white tiger because he makes an appearance every six months). The Bucs TE situation seems to be a two-man show between Alex Smith and Jerramy Stevens. Smith seems to be the more consistent of the two (at least one catch in every game), while Stevens is the more explosive (the former Seahawk has the two best games by a Tampa Bay TE this season). I’d avoid both, but if you have to choose go with Smith. Defense This unit continues to be the star of this team. In normal scoring formats, Tampa Bay’s defense is rated No. 2 – Chicago and its five TDs is generally No. 1 – but I think they’re the best. Giving up just 14 points pg and having 15 takeaways and four defensive scores are great numbers, but the best I think is the 11 sacks. Why? Because it means there’s room for more and fantasy owners that have the Bucs defense can be confident that number will likely triple over the next nine weeks. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS State of the team: The Saints are in a bit of a free fall. Sitting at 3-4, New Orleans is coming off a bad loss at Carolina in which they lost star running back Reggie Bush to a knee injury and had to endure the mouth of Jeremy Shockey afterward. Throw in the fact that two players, including Deuce McAllister, were reportedly caught in violation of the league’s steroid policy and you have a team with some issues. This Sunday they find themselves in London to take on an angry Chargers team. I can see New Orleans cobbling together five more wins this season, but they aren’t making the playoffs. Fantasy playoff schedule: FALCONS, at Bears, at Lions QB: Despite New Orleans struggles and the loss of Marques Colston in Week 1, Drew Brees just keeps on posting good numbers. I think the loss of Bush will hurt, but it’ll likely be offset by the addition of Colston. Whatever he’s got going on around him Brees is a must-start every week and could lead some teams to a championship with Bush expected back by Week 14 and that schedule. The passing defenses for Atlanta (26th in the NFL), Chicago (30th) and Detroit (31st) are all giving up at least 230 ypg through the air. RB: Before he got injured, Bush was enjoying his best season to date. The third-year pro was averaging 100 total ypg and had five touchdowns (eight if your league counts individual return TDs). Now it looks like he’ll be out at least a month probably more. Bush owners can only hope he’ll be back for the fantasy playoffs, but even then if he is how healthy will he be? I’d check if there’s an owner out there that’s got a deep team and may want to gamble on Bush and see if he’ll deal someone like Steve Slaton for Bush. More likely Bush owners can only hope he’ll be back before Week 14 and be rounding into shape by the fantasy playoffs. As for McAllister I’m guessing he’s going to be suspended four games. It’s not like you were playing him anyway. What this does do, however, is open up a spot for Pierre Thomas to shine. He proved in last season’s finale (226 total yards, 1 TD) that he can carry the load. If McAllister does get suspended and you’re desperate for a running back try out Thomas. You could do worse. Aaron Stecker will be filling in for Bush, but I don’t see him putting up numbers worth a play. Receivers: Hampered by a splint on his hand, Marques Colston was terrible in his first game back from injury last Sunday. Don’t expect that to last. Colston should start to look like his old self starting Sunday against the Chargers. If you drafted Colston and sat on him over the past six weeks go ahead and start playing him with confidence. As for the potpourrie of other Saints WR – Devery Henderson, Lance Moore and Robert Meachem – who all saw some success during Colston’s absence, Moore will probably be the one that continues to put up decent numbers. He’s not worth more than a third WR spot, however. Defense With Bush’s return numbers now gone, this defense becomes completely useless. Not to mention, DE Will Smith was the other guy caught up in the steroid violation with McAllister and you have a unit that will give up a lot points, not get many sacks or turnovers. Avoid. ... [Read More] E-mail | Print | Comment NEW!
A look at the AFC East AFC East This is Part II of my midseason breakdown of all 32 teams in the NFL. I’ll take it position-by-position and keep it in terms of fantasy. Here we go: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS State of the team: The Patriots were a team that came into the season with high expectations for fantasy owners. From Tom Brady to Randy Moss to Wes Welker (heck even the defense was good last year), New England led many fantasy owners deep into the playoffs last year. Well that won’t happen in 2008. The injury to Tom Brady has made the Patriots a middling team at best. Matt Cassel will have solid games (see Monday night against Denver), but they’re going to be far and few between, and that affects numbers of the whole offense. Fantasy playoff schedule: at Seahawks, at Raiders, CARDINALS QB: Many people might think that Cassel is coming around after Monday’s three-TD performance against Denver. Don’t bet on it. The Broncos’ defense is horrid and the Patriots’ run game did a nice job of allowing Cassel time and space to throw. Many Brady owners picked up Cassel after Brady went down, hoping he could post respectable numbers. Besides Monday he hasn’t, and he won’t have more than three games like that down the stretch. He isn’t the quarterback to lead anybody to a deep run in the playoffs. RB: Laurence Maroney going on injured reserve wasn’t much of a blow to fantasy owners because if you were relying on him for anything you weren’t going anywhere in the first place. Sammy Morris looked good on Monday night, running through Denver’s defense to the tune of 138 yards. He did hurt his knee and looks to be out at least one week. In his absence Lamont Jordan and Benjarvus Green-Ellis will get the lion’s share of the carries. But, like the beginning of the season, the problem in New England’s backfield remains, too many cooks in the kitchen, especially with Jordan returning. Receivers: Unfortunately for Moss owners, he’s going to be as up and down this season as Cassel – as Cassel goes so goes Moss. He’s had two strong games out of the past three, but, with solid defenses like Buffalo, NY Jets, Miami and Pittsburgh coming up, I don’t see that continuing over the next six weeks. The one bright spot for Moss owners is his playoff sked. Can you see the Seahawks stopping Moss deep? I can’t. How about that Raiders game? A little payback on Moss’ mind, perhaps. And Arizona’s been known to give up points on the East Coast (the Jets game, anyone?). As for Welker, if you’re in a point-per-reception league, he’ll continue to post good numbers. He’s on pace for 112 receptions and with Cassel continuing to look for him as a safety outlet, he’ll probably make it. He’s not going to score more than five touchdowns this season, however. But like I said he’s a great play in ppr leagues. After a solid season last year, Benjamin Watson was supposed to have a breakout year. Well that didn’t happen. He’s failed to record a catch in three games and has just 57 receiving yards. He’s not worth a roster spot. DefenseThis has been as up-and-down a unit as Cassel. Good performances like Monday’s are offset by games like the San Diego one. The Patriots are giving up a respectable 19.7 points per game, but expect that number to climb with an already susceptible secondary getting weaker with the loss of Rodney Harrison. The team’s 10 sacks and 11 takeaways this season is middle of the road and won’t improve over the next nine weeks. Unlike last season, this defense isn’t a difference-maker. NEW YORK JETS State of the team: It’s fitting that the Jets find themselves at 3-3 at this point in the season. Who really are the Jets? The team that annihilated Arizona or the team that lost to the Raiders? This seems like a team destined to finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs in a season when they really shouldn’t. Brett Favre has brought a spark (see the Arizona game), but he’s also failed to deliver in big moments (see the Raiders game). This team will continue to be a roller-coaster ride for fantasy owners as well. One week great, the next horrible. Hang on, Favre owners. Fantasy playoff schedule: at 49ers, BILLS, at Seahawks QB: At first glance, Favre’s numbers look respectable. He’s averaging that magical benchmark for fantasy QBs: 220 ypg and more than 2 TD pg. But a closer look reveals a problem. He’s thrown for one TD over the past two weeks and his numbers are inflated by that Arizona performance (289 yards; 6 TDs). But I think if you own Favre, you play Favre. The potential is too great. He’s going to put up big numbers in games like this Sunday at home against K.C. and in two weeks with the Rams coming to town. But then the inevitable poor performances against teams like the Bills, Patriots and Titans on the road loom. His playoff schedule looks good with the 49ers and Seahawks, but those are two cross-country trips in three weeks for an old man. Expect him to average 220/2 over the next nine weeks, but good luck guessing when the 320yard/5TD or the 180/0 performances pop up. RB: It seems that Favre’s arm has opened some holes for Thomas Jones. He’s had two strong weeks in a row following the Arizona game. Defenses are no doubt keeping their safeties back to protect against Favre and Jones has been the beneficiary. The positives for Jones are he’s going to get the lion’s share of the carries in this offense (he’s averaging 18 carries pg) and he’ll get all the goalline carries. The downside is that he’s going to throw out a few stinkers over the next nine weeks like his game against Arizona (46 yards) when the team decides to abandon the run and let Favre throw the ball all over the place. Playing Jones on a regular basis will likely get you to the playoffs, but he’s not the kind of player to help you make a deep run. Receivers: Favre has helped both Jets wide receivers, especially Jerricho Cotchery. Before suffering leg injury last week (Cotchery looks to be a game-time decision this Sunday), Cotchery was posting nice numbers and had become a must-start every week. Once he’s healthy again he’ll return to that status. After a slow start Laveranues Coles started to get comfortable with Favre, averaging 72 ypg and nearly a TD pg. But now a concussion and a thigh injury has hampered Coles. Like Cotchery, though, Coles is a nice option once he gets healthy. Chansi Stuckey was a nice surprise early, catching a touchdown in each of his first three games, but he’s tailed off since. He is a nice option this Sunday and as long as Coles is out, but after that don’t bother. Defense The Jets’ defense has been solid in the first six games, scoring two TDs and giving up an average of just 17.2 points pg if you throw out the debacle in San Diego. The teams 20 sacks is a good sign, and New York will likely improve upon its 10 takeaways with teams like San Fran, Seattle, K.C. and St. Louis on the docket. The Jets are a solid play every week. BUFFALO BILLS State of the team: The Bills are one of the surprise teams of ’08. Sitting at 5-1 and in the catbird seat of the AFC East has Buffalo thinking playoffs and possible first-round bye. I think they make the playoffs with a 10-6 record in their future. I think they’ll lose to the Dolphins this weekend and then drop the remainder of their road games. Buffalo is a decent team with a good defense and a passable offense. I just think their shortcomings (playing from behind, their mediocre run defense) will be exposed by teams in the second half. But their schedule is so weak they’ll make the playoffs – and possibly win the division. Fantasy playoff schedule: DOLPHINS, at Jets, at Broncos QB: Look up the word serviceable in the NFL dictionary and you’ll see a picture of Trent Edwards. The second-year player out of Stanford is doing just enough to let the Bills’ defense and solid running game win games. He’s averaging a little over 200 yards and under a TD per game. Even though he was knocked out very early in the Arizona loss, in terms of fantasy those are not serviceable numbers. RB: For a team with a strong defense and a run-based offense, Buffalo’s run game has been surprisingly mediocre. Marshawn Lynch is getting two-thirds of the team’s carries, but he has yet to go over the century mark this season. He does have five TDs and 19 catches for 113 yards, so he is a must-start every week. Watch for Lynch to continue putting up around 100 total ypg and keep on his pace for 13 touchdowns. Throw in the fact he has two favorable matchups in the playoffs (Miami at home and the Broncos putrid run defense) and Lynch is a nice option going into the playoffs. If Lynch gets hurt, Fred Jackson, who is averaging 4.3 ypc is a great pickup. Receivers: With the QB spot settled, Lee Evans is having a fantastic year. He has yet to go under 65 yards receiving in a game and he’s scored three TDs. He is Edwards No. 1 target and he’s a deep threat once again. He’s a must-start every week. There really aren’t any other options on this team in terms of fantasy. Josh Reed is averaging nearly 45 ypg, but he has yet to score. James Hardy, who was a sleeper coming into the season, has scored a TD, but has caught passes in only two games. Neither of these guys are worth a roster spot. TE Robert Royal had a great game in the opener (6 catches, 1 for a TD), but hasn’t replicated it since and is only worth anything if you’re in a 12-team league and completely desperate. Defense In fantasy, Buffalo’s defense has been in the middle of the road. Thanks to only 12 sacks and just nine takeaways, the Bills are on the lower end. I expect that to change over the second half. If you get points for special teams TDs, Buffalo will likely score another two with Roscoe Parrish returning and expect those sack numbers and takeaway numbers to climb over the final nine games. If the Bills’ D is on the waiver wire in your league pick them up and play them with confidence, especially against Cleveland, K.C., San Fran and Miami in Weeks 11-14. MIAMI DOLPHINS State of the team: You can bring up the Dolphins without bringing up the Wildcat, the offensive formation they’ve been using that puts Ronnie Brown in the shotgun and lets him do with the ball what he will – run or pass. Despite the fact they’ve doubled their win total from a year ago, this still isn’t a very good team as it showed against Baltimore at home last week. They make it interesting every week, though, and they’re one of the hardest teams to handicap. They get pummeled by the Ravens one week and beat a solid Chargers team the next. Fantasy playoff schedule: at Bills, 49ERS, at Chiefs QB: Chad Pennington has had sort of a rebirth in Miami. He’s averaging 232 yards and a TD pg. But the problem is the Wildcat is taking valuable snaps away from him. In the Dolphins win over New England, Pennington had no TD passes despite the fact Miami scored 38 points. That can’t happen to your quarterback and it’s the reason Pennington is wallowing on most leagues’ waiver wire. RB: Because of the Wildcat, Ronnie Brown is an intriguing fantasy guy. He may run for a touchdown, catch one and now he could throw for one. There are three problems with Brown. One, he’s an all or nothing guy. In two games he’s compiled 264 yards and six touchdowns. In the other four games he’s totaled 216 yards and just two scores. Second, he goes as Miami goes. His two big games came in Miami’s two wins. He’s been mediocre at best in the other four. With Miami likely to win three games over the next nine that’s not good numbers. Third, Ricky Williams is poaching just enough carries from Brown to make him a liability from week to week. I’m not saying to sit Brown, but you’ll have to take the good with the bad and he’s likely going to cost you in the playoffs, likely in week 14 when Miami travels to chilly Buffalo. Receivers: Ted Ginn Jr. was supposed to lead this team, but he hasn’t stepped into that role yet. He’s shown signs of improving (three of his past four games have been solid), but he has yet to score and isn’t the deep threat I think most people thought he’d be. Greg Camarillo leads this team in receiving with 27 catches for 337 yards and a score, but he has yet to go over 74 yards in a game. Don’t use either of these guys unless you’re desperate. If you do, go Ginn – more upside. The real threat here is Anthony Fasano. He’s tailed off a bit over the past two games, but he’s a threat to score each week and he’s a pretty large part of this offense. Defense You can likely do better than this unit, but with the 49ers at home and K.C. on the road in the playoffs this unit could be a nice sleeper. They have 15 sacks this season and eight takeaways so they are active. They have yet to score a defensive touchdown, but that should change. If you’re saddled with an underachieving defense like Dallas or Jacksonville, pick up Miami. It can’t hurt. ... [Read More] E-mail | Print | Comment NEW! A look at the NFC West This is Part I of my midseason breakdown of all 32 teams in the NFL. I’ll take it position-by-position and keep it in terms of fantasy. Here we go: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS State of the team: Frisco fired Mike Nolan on Monday, a day after the 49ers dropped their fourth game in a row. I don’t think anybody was fooled by their 2-1 start, but this team is in free-fall and Mike Singletary is simply a bandage. Mike Martz’s offense has proved – as it did in Detroit – that it can put up big numbers – in the turnover column, that is. Fantasy playoff schedule: JETS, at Dolphins, at Rams QB: J.T. O’Sullivan got off to a nice start, but he’s started to look like the guy who has been kicked around seven teams over the past six seasons. He’s averaging just under 200 yards per game and has eight touchdowns in seven games. With three defenses giving up around 230 yards per game, his schedule in the fantasy playoff is favorable. But with a sub-par receiving corps and the team in flux, O’Sullivan isn’t worth owning or playing. RB: Frank Gore has played well in the first half of the season, averaging 111 yards per game and scoring 4 TDs in seven games. He plays two decent run defenses in the fantasy playoffs – Jets (83 ypg) and the Dolphins (97.5) – and one terrible run defense – St. Louis (161). If you have Gore, ride him. He’s playing well and as the lone bright spot on this team he’ll continue to get the ball. Truly the only tough run defense he faces over the next nine weeks is the Jets. Receivers: This has been a carousel ride in terms of who is this team’s leading receiver. Isaac Bruce one week, Arnaz Battle the next. Last week it was rookie Josh Morgan, who looked good in scoring a touchdown and posting five catches for 86 yards. I’d say Morgan is really the only guy in this corps worth having going forward, and he’s really only a flex option at that. And as for Bryant Johnson, one of this year’s big sleepers coming into the season, he’s been terrible and is now in the coaching staff’s doghouse. Tight end Vernon Davis had a good game two weeks ago against Philly, but he’s just to inconsistent to trust on a week-to-week basis and as anything but a bye-week replacement. DefenseThis unit is not good at all and shouldn’t be owned by anybody. They’re giving up 28 points per game and is in the middle of the road with 13 sacks and 10 takeaways with no sign of improvement. ST. LOUIS RAMS State of the team: The Rams have looked quite a bit better since firing Scott Linehan and promoting Jim Haslett. The former Saints head coach has brought a fire and life to the team and could help this team reach 6 wins – unthinkable two weeks ago. Fantasy playoff schedule: at Cardinals, SEAHAWKS, 49ERS QB: Since being benched for Trent Green, Marc Bulger hasn’t exactly turned it on over the past two weeks despite the team’s two wins. He threw for a paltry 173 yards and a touchdown last week even though his team scored 34 points. This isn’t the Greatest Show on Turf anymore. This is Steven Jackson’s show. If the Rams are going to win it’s going to be on Jackson’s back. The one wild card with Bulger is how the fantasy playoff schedule shapes up. Arizona and Seattle are putrid against the pass, while the 49ers are only holding teams to 217 yards through the air per contest because they’re giving up 122 ypg on the ground. If you need a backup and Bulger’s out there you might want to grab him just because if the Rams’ WR corps improves he may be a nice option in the playoffs. RB: Here’s to all the fantasy owners who either stuck with Steven Jackson or traded low for him. Jackson went bonkers against the Cowboys and should only get better as the season goes along (remember the Rams opponents during the fantasy playoffs). He did strain his thigh during last week’s game, but apparently is ready to go. (http://tinyurl.com/5lpdj2) He’s an automatic play every week, which is why you drafted him in the first round anyway, right? Receivers: You have to start wondering if Torry Holt even has it anymore. He’s on pace for a career-low 674 yards and is getting little help from his fellow receivers. Donnie Avery has shown a little bit over the past couple of games, but Holt needs to turn it on. He’s a classic example of an un-injured player struggling in the first half of the season only to turn it on in the second half. Along with Bulger he could really benefit of that weak schedule in Weeks 14-16. As for Avery, he’s not worth anything as long as Holt’s healthy. DefenseThough the Rams’ defense has played better over the past two weeks it’s still not worth owning in any fantasy league. St. Louis is giving up 29.7 points per game and has 14 sacks and 10 takeaways. You can do better. ARIZONA CARDINALS State of the team: The Cardinals are having a surprisingly good season so far and look like a shoo-in to win the NFC West. Kurt Warner is flinging the ball around again, maybe not as well as he did in his heyday, but when he’s not turning the ball over he’s a top-level quarterback again. This team will have some down games, but with Anquan Boldin returning from injury, this offense doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. Fantasy playoff schedule: RAMS, VIKINGS, at Patriots QB: The thing about Kurt Warner is, if you play in a league that penalizes players for turnovers, he’s going to kill you at some point. It’s inevitable that he’s going to have a turnover meltdown and starting coughing the ball up like he’s allergic to it. It’s just bound to happen – in fact it’ll probably happen 2-3 times over the next nine weeks. But he’s also going to carry you some weeks (he’s averaging 285 yards and 2 TDs per game), and the way Arizona’s schedule shapes up in the fantasy playoffs he’ll be a good answer at quarterback RB: Edge James doesn’t seem to have it anymore. He’s lost a step and this season it’s really showing. He’s got one game over 100 yards and is averaging 60 yards per game on the ground. Tim Hightower on the other hand looks like the real deal. The rookie out of Richmond has shown glimpses. He’s also the team’s goalline finisher so that’s a bonus. I think as the second half of the season progresses, Hightower’s carries will increase from about 7-10 to 14-17 per game. Receivers: Let’s not even discuss Larry Fitzgerald. He’s a must-start every week and because of the way the Arizona playoff schedule shapes up, don’t even think about dealing him. Anquan Boldin’s injury was serious, so it’ll be interesting to see how he comes back. He may be a little skittish about going over the middle anytime soon, but he should be able to post good numbers if he can stay healthy. If you own him keep an eye on him over the next couple three weeks. As for Steve Breaston owners, if Boldin comes back and is his old self then Breaston goes back to being worthless. DefenseThe Cardinals defense isn’t great, but you could do worse. The Cards are giving up 24 points, nearly two takeaways and three sacks per game. It’s not a unit that’s going to win you a title, however. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS State of the team: The Seahawks are this year’s version of the 2007 Carolina Panthers: Talented, but injuries have killed them, especially to their QB. Remember Carolina, which was favored to win the NFC South last season, went 7-9 after Jake Delhomme went down for the season with an elbow injury. Similarly, Seattle is spiraling out of control and will be out of the race for a fifth-straight NFC West crown if they lose this week against San Francisco. They’ve been hampered by injuries from the receiving corps to their starting quarterback, and the defense has been underachieving. If Matt Hasselbeck can return this week, Seattle has a chance against a San Francisco club in flux and could wiggle their way back into the playoff race. More likely, the Seahawks are headed for a 5-win season with a couple of surprise home wins in November and December. Fantasy playoff schedule: PATRIOTS, at Rams, JETS QB: This hasn’t been a good season for Matt Hasselbeck. He hasn’t been right since tweaking his back in the first preseason game, add in the fact he tweaked his knee against the Giants two weeks ago, and has missed the past two games with a bulging disc and he’d undoubtedly like to press the restart button on this campaign. Even before the Giants game, Hasselbeck wasn’t playing all that well. He could cobble together a good showing or two down the stretch, but when? It’s not worth gambling on him. RB: After two straight 100 yard performances in weeks 2 and 3, Julius Jones was a hot name in fantasy. But now with | ||||||||
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