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CONTACT THE HERALD
Mike Benbow, Business Editor
benbow@heraldnet.com
 
Published: Monday, February 8, 2010

Snohomish County's bargain housing won't last

For the last couple of years, the monthly report on real estate sales in Snohomish County has sounded a lot like a broken record: sales down, listings down, prices down.

In recent months, the government has stepped in. First it was an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers. Then that was extended and a $6,500 credit was offered to people who wanted to move up to a different home.

Then it was sales up, listings down, prices down.

Nobody knows when prices will stop falling, but the numbers are getting pretty interesting to me.

It's not, of course, completely about prices. What homes cost in our county have a direct relationship to its population, to I-5 traffic, and to other elements of our daily lives.

In the most recent stats released last week by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, the combined median price for single-family homes and condominiums in the county last month was $267,995. That's about $29,000 less than the median price of just a year ago, or down about 9 percent.

Things get even more interesting if you look in King County, where the combined median price was $350,000 last month. That's down less than 4 percent from the previous year, about $14,000. A median means half the homes cost more and half cost less.

The Snohomish County real estate market has always been linked to King County because King has a significantly larger number of jobs. In the past, people who worked in King County often were forced to buy more affordable homes in Snohomish County.

For years, Snohomish County homes cost about $50,000 less on average than those in King County, so people were willing to buy their homes here and fight the traffic every day.

What I noticed during the past year or so is that the prices for homes in King County have been dropping significantly less than prices for homes in Snohomish County.

The gap in median prices in the two counties is widening. It's now $83,000.

Again, I don't know what to expect in the real estate market. But if businesses start hiring again, I've got to think Snohomish County home sales should climb faster than in King County.

That $83,000 gap is pretty substantial, and it likely will continue to expand for a while until the economy begins growing again.

The gap gets bigger the further you're willing to drive.

In Everett, the median price is $256,734. In Stanwood, it's closer to $230,000.

In southeast Snohomish County near the King County line, the median is $350,000, or the same as in King County. Last year in that same spot, the median was $413,000.

I've heard some friends say that one of the few good things about the recession is that the commute to King County seems less strenuous these days. If that's been your experience, I'd enjoy it while you can. It's not going to last forever.

Mike Benbow: 425-339-3459; benbow@heraldnet.com

COMMENTS

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Gas too
The same will hold true for gas, the Nobama boys will want you out of your cars and on the bus so look for gas to throught the roof soon as work picks up thanks a lot Nobama. Buy the way Mike when will out property taxes go down?twisted
camano kid | Feb 8, 2010 6:51 am | 1 replies | Request removal

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Re: Gas too
So, you like subsidized gasoline, is that what you're saying?

People need to understand that there are actually LIMITS to physical resources, and that consuming such resources means that there is LESS resources, such as oil (and therefore gas).

Before you (or anyone else) complains about things then you better have an understanding of what the REAL factors/drivers are.

Without being able to properly identify the problem/issues tax cuts OR tax increases are NOT going to be any solution: drop property taxes and your insurance rates will go up (less fire service); less road repair, higher costs to trucking, which will then translate to higher food prices (and all other transported goods).

The US imports close to 60% of its oil. This isn't the good old days, pre-1971, when we were a net exporter of oil (prior to US peak oil production), when oil was bringing IN revenue. These oil imports result in roughly 40% of our foreign trade deficit. Add in the billions of dollars that we spend to keep oil flowing, er a fight terrorists, and it all adds up to huge subsidies. ALL net importers (Britain, Japan and China [once it runs through its massive reserves of money]) face a bleak lower-energy-level future. And, you know what energy is? It's potential WORK; net oil importers will, as a result of less energy, produce less, which then means that they will have LESS to spend on energy.

I would like to remind people that it was the PRIVATE sector that crashed and burned (because it pushed a future that wasn't sustainable) and that it was the PUBLIC sector that came in and bailed it out (and did so very poorly- that's what happens when corporations own your government, they make sure that they get served first- one need only look at the recent bankster bonuses to verify that).

Get educated, Dave! Here's a starter (it's an essential fundamental):

http://www.guba.com/watch/3000053112/Arithmetic-Population-Energy

Mark Nagel | Feb 09, 2010 11:08 am | Request removal
Is it a bargain when you're unemployed?
Nowhere does Mr. Benbow mention employment in relation to BUYING a home!

Hm... sounds just like what helped get us into this mess in the first place!

Job losses. Wage stagnation. Home prices are still WAY overpriced! The ONLY way that they can become affordable without significant price drop is for multiple families to reside in them: which is likely happening now- children (who may have families) moving back home; this could help explain why there's an apparently inexplicable reason why rents are falling so much- with people losing their homes you'd expect less vacancies in rentals (and or could it also be due to falling wages and unemployment?).

Retail was a big part of the jobs in this area. These are jobs that are NOT coming back. As such, don't look for upward pressure on wages and employment to meet up with home prices- home prices will, then, have to come down.

To put things in historical perspective:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/case-shiller-updated.png

Sometimes reality is just too hard to face, but there it is...

Mark Nagel | Feb 9, 2010 10:49 am | 0 replies | Request removal

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