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Published: Wednesday, October 15, 2008
$21 million budget shortfall predicted for Snohomish County
By Krista J. Kapralos Herald Writer
The latest news about Snohomish County's budget is as bad as it's ever been, and it may get worse.
A predicted revenue shortfall of $9 million has grown to $21 million in recent weeks, County Council Chairman Dave Somers said Tuesday. That's about 10 percent of the $210 million general fund budget on which the county operated this year.
With the unsettled economy, the problem likely will only get bigger, officials said. The council by law must approve next year's budget before Nov. 24.
"When you develop a budget, you're really looking into a crystal ball," Somers said. "Even our revenue predictions assume the economy will recover somewhat next year, so if the economy really tanks even more next year, we could be even worse off than this."
The predicted deficit has more than doubled since county Executive Aaron Reardon made his budget recommendations in early September. Reardon said then that nearly 100 county workers could lose their jobs, and some county services could be cut.
Reardon agreed Tuesday that the budget crisis has worsened, but it may not be as bad as Somers says. Reardon said he believes the shortfall is at about $12 million now, and could go up to $16 million.
"It's entirely possible that the shortfall could be $21 million, but at this juncture I don't think it's that high," Reardon said.
Somers has invited every county department head and elected official, including Reardon, to attend a public meeting on Thursday to discuss budget problems.
"The most important thing to do Thursday is to determine how these deficit assumptions are being made, so everyone is working off the same number," Reardon said.
Snohomish County's rapid growth in recent years also brought a steadily increasing income for the county. As the national economy has tanked, property and sales tax revenues here have taken sharp hits. That's where most of the shortfall is rooted, Somers said. The county's investments, which bring in about $2 million each year, also are suffering, he said.
Somers' $21 million projected shortfall is based on spending at levels allowed under the 2008 budget. In other words, no cuts. Reardon's 2009 budget proposal built in an assumption that the county would see its sales tax revenue climb by 17 percent compared to this year, Somers said.
"We're very puzzled by that assumption," he said, adding that sales tax revenue this year already is down by about 40 percent from last year.
Reardon said he doesn't know what Somers is talking about.
It's not clear how many county workers will lose their jobs and how many county services will be cut because of the budget crisis. Positions and programs in every county department, including animal control officers, fairgrounds workers, county prosecutors, jail workers, drug court and many others are at risk.
The county's budget woes also are affecting agencies that rely of funding from county government.
Somers on Tuesday warned Snohomish Health District leaders that the county's problems could mean a 10 percent cut in financial support for the district.
That could mean the loss of up to $300,000 of the district's $22.9 million budget. Up to 10 people could lose their jobs, health district Deputy Director Rick Mockler said. Health programs that serve the county's poorest and most vulnerable citizens are at risk.
Reardon said the council should try to approve a budget by the end of this month, instead of waiting until the Nov. 24 deadline. County workers and residents are worried, and should know how they'll be affected as soon as possible, he said.
Somers said the council next week will decide whether to approve a two-year budget, or just consider 2009 numbers. The council approved a switch to a two-year budget cycle late last year, but now it's too difficult to predict the economy's health in 2010, he said.
"The economy is so uncertain and things are changing so rapidly that I think we need to go back to an annual budget," he said.
Reporter Krista J. Kapralos: 425-339-3422 or kkapralos@heraldnet.com.
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